Iran war at 6 months: Who gained, who lost the most economically

Six months since the US, Israeli, and Iranian military conflict began, economic consequences have been mixed. Although global markets initially panicked and oil prices surged, they have since recovered, and the shift towards renewable energy has accelerated. However, certain sectors have suffered, including airlines, farmers, and consumers.

Investors who remained level-headed have fared well, as stock markets have rebounded strongly following the initial shock. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have all seen significant gains since their March lows, buoyed by optimism around artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency predicts electric vehicles will make up 29% of global vehicle sales by 2026, up from 25% in 2025.

However, the aviation industry has been hit hard, with airlines raising fares and cutting flights due to the increased cost of jet fuel. The International Air Transport Association forecasts jet fuel prices will be 70% higher in 2026 than in 2025. Farmers have also faced challenges, as higher energy and fertiliser prices have put pressure on food production and security, particularly in regions that rely heavily on imported fertiliser.

On the positive side, defence contractors have seen increased demand for military equipment and technology, with companies such as Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman securing contracts related to the conflict. Additionally, companies involved in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and other alternatives to imported fossil fuels have also benefited from the crisis. Nevertheless, the economic fallout has been uneven, with some sectors reaping the rewards while others have endured hardships.