Six months into the Iran war, the global economy has pulled off a ‘Mission Impossible’ scene, and the Trump family is among the winners

Six months into the Iran war, investors who remained calm have been the biggest winners, as markets have staged a remarkable recovery. While global oil prices surged to near $120 per barrel, driving up costs for consumers and airlines, the Dow and Nasdaq have each risen over 20%, posting their fourth consecutive year of gains. The International Monetary Fund attributes this resilience to the surge in enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.

On the other hand, anyone forced to move around has faced significant economic pain. Jet fuel prices have risen by as much as 70% compared to prewar levels, prompting airlines to raise ticket costs, baggage fees, and fuel surcharges. Lufthansa and Spirit Airlines have both responded by cutting flights and reducing revenue.

The war has also significantly impacted the fight against global hunger. With the Strait of Hormuz constricting oil exports, fertilizer prices have soared, leading farmers to cut back on fertilizer use. This has threatened next year's harvests and pushed tens of millions of people towards the brink of hunger, particularly in Asia and Africa. Higher transportation costs have also hampered the World Food Programme's efforts to alleviate world hunger.

While the Trump family's businesses have been beneficiaries of the conflict, such as Powerus, which secured a $90 million contract from the Air Force to supply interceptors to shoot down Iranian drones, the broader economic consequences of the war have been profound and far-reaching.