Earlier volcano warnings could mean more false alarms – but they could also save lives
AI models could spot volcanic eruptions earlier – and new research says the lives saved make the occasional false alarm worth the price.
In December 2019, Whakaari/White Island erupted suddenly in New Zealand, killing 22 people and injuring 25 others, marking the country's deadliest volcanic disaster in recent history. However, similar near-fatal volcanic events have occurred over the past two decades, with many occurring at night or when few people were present. Despite these occurrences, early warning systems failed to provide sufficient forecasts.
New research suggests that machine-learning techniques could improve early volcano warnings by detecting subtle changes in seismic vibrations. These automated warnings could alert people well in advance of an eruption, potentially saving lives. However, the introduction of such systems also raises the question of how many false alarms are tolerable.
Previous studies have found that early warnings for the Whakaari volcano correctly predicted four out of five eruptions, but this came with around 15 days of false alarms annually.
Researchers conducted a cost-loss analysis to determine the economic impact of precautionary measures versus the potential losses from successful eruptions. The results indicated that precautionary actions could reduce preventable losses by 30-90%. The trade-off between false alarms and potential lives saved will depend on the specific volcano and its surrounding community.
While automation may enhance early warning systems, it would not replace the crucial role of human volcanologists in interpreting data and managing crises. The system could be most beneficial when there is sudden escalation in volcanic activity, providing an initial warning while experts assess the situation. Such faster warnings could protect tourist areas, walking tracks, nearby communities, and critical infrastructure like roads and power lines.
These findings align with the United Nations' Early Warnings for All initiative, which aims to provide universal access to multi-hazard warning systems by 2027. In situations where eruptions occur with little warning, accepting more false alarms may be a reasonable price to pay for giving people additional time to evacuate.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
