[Column] What may come of a meeting of Trump and Kim Jong-un

The possibility of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and DPRK leader Kim Jong-un has been a topic of speculation. While it remains early to determine if such a meeting will occur before the end of the year, it is essential to consider the potential outcomes. Speculation on future events can greatly influence decisions made in the present.

The relationship between Trump and Kim has evolved significantly since their first encounters in 2018 and 2019, with Kim now asserting his own leverage and demanding respect from the US.

Kim's increasing ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have bolstered his position, as both nations have acknowledged North Korea as a nuclear power, turning a blind eye to its actions. This newfound confidence in China and Russia has prompted North Korea to reevaluate its stance on the US, leading to a clear distinction between the two Americas - the hostile policy against North Korea and the more amicable relationship under Trump.

The DPRK now recognizes that it must prioritize removing hostile US policies if it desires another meeting with Kim. These hostile policies include joint military exercises with South Korea and Japan, strategic asset deployments to the peninsula, sanctions, the refusal to sign a peace treaty or establish diplomatic relations, and pressure for North Korea's denuclearization. However, the DPRK has now shifted its focus away from denuclearization, considering it a prime example of hostile policy and demanding its abandonment.

If Trump were to meet Kim, it is likely that he would promise to reduce large-scale joint military drills during his presidency. This could have a significant impact on the return of wartime operational control (OPCON) to South Korea, as it relies on the verification of the Korean military's capabilities through joint drills.

On the issue of denuclearization, Trump has been cautious, refusing to directly address the goal of US-DPRK dialogue. While he has expressed a willingness to work with North Korea, Kim's perspective remains unchanged, maintaining the demand for denuclearization as a core issue. For the meeting to be successful, North Korea must be convinced that the US has truly abandoned its previous approach.

In terms of sanctions, easing them could be a potential outcome of the summit, contingent on North Korea's agreement to cease nuclear arsenal development and intercontinental ballistic missile testing. However, the new DPRK no longer appears to prioritize the easing of sanctions, the signing of a peace treaty, or establishing diplomatic relations as concessions from the US. Instead, Trump seems to view these measures as steps that could benefit the US interests.