[Column] What may come of a meeting of Trump and Kim Jong-un

The possibility of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and DPRK leader Kim Jong-un remains uncertain. Regardless, it's essential to consider the potential outcomes of such a gathering. Speculating about future events is vital because our projections can significantly influence the decisions we make now. When Trump and Kim met in 2018 and 2019, there was a clear hierarchy in their relationship.

However, in 2026, Kim believes he holds significant leverage and expects to be treated with the same respect as the US. This position has been earned through his growing ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who have acknowledged North Korea as a nuclear power and turned a blind eye to its actions.

Now, there are two distinct Americas that North Korea must navigate. One is symbolized by its hostile policy towards North Korea, while the other is exemplified by Trump, who has a "good relationship" with Kim. During Trump's first term, North Korea struggled to differentiate between the two. However, the DPRK is now determined to distinguish between the two Americas and has made it clear that Trump must prioritize removing hostile US policies towards North Korea if he wants another meeting with Kim.

These policies include joint military exercises with South Korea and Japan, the deployment of strategic assets to the peninsula, sanctions, refusal to sign a peace treaty or establish diplomatic relations, and the insistence on North Korea's denuclearization.

The DPRK's priorities have shifted significantly, making it impossible to lump all these issues together. Joint military drills have always been a contentious issue for North Korea, but denuclearization has now become a crucial concern as the DPRK strives to become an "irreversible" nuclear state. The DPRK no longer mentions sanctions, the signing of a peace treaty, or the establishment of diplomatic relations, as these were once urgent issues.

They have chosen to keep these unspoken desires to themselves, wary that mentioning them could lead to demands for denuclearization, which they aim to avoid.

If Trump meets Kim, what will happen to Korea and the US' joint military exercises? It is likely that Trump will promise not to conduct large-scale joint military drills while he is president. However, this could complicate the return of wartime operational control (OPCON) to Korea, as the return depends on the Korean military's capabilities, which were to be verified through these drills. The DPRK and the US must first address this challenge if they hold a bilateral summit.

On the more pressing issue of denuclearization, Trump deflected when asked about the goal of US-DPRK dialogue on August 19, saying, "I don't want to talk about that." He added that he had a "very good relationship" with Kim and that having a country with "57 very powerful nuclear weapons" is a "good thing." From Pyongyang's perspective, Washington may have lowered its volume but not changed its message: the demand for denuclearization remains.

Until this demand is removed from the table, North Korea is unlikely to believe that the US has truly abandoned its previous approach. However, Trump has previously mentioned a larger vision: countries with large nuclear arsenals, including the US, Russia, China, and others, should take the lead in nuclear disarmament before bringing North Korea on board.

This suggests that, if a US-DPRK summit occurs, they may issue an agreement along the lines of "the two nations have agreed to work together toward a world free of nuclear threats and weapons." Sanctions against North Korea could be eased if it agrees to stop building its nuclear arsenal and halt the testing and development of intercontinental ballistic missiles.