As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Ninos

A new study published in the journal Science suggests that El Ninos—periodic natural climatic events that spike global temperatures—are becoming stronger due to human-induced climate change. The research indicates that these events are 36% stronger than pre-industrial levels, with a 16% increase in the last 40 years, showing the trend is accelerating.

El Ninos, which are temporary warmings of the equatorial Pacific, significantly impact weather patterns worldwide, leading to extreme events like heat waves, floods, and droughts. Their impacts can cost trillions in damages. The study's lead author, Julia Cole, a paleoclimate scientist at the University of Michigan, examined coral fossils from the Galapagos Islands to analyze the strength of El Ninos over the last 900 years.

This approach essentially serves as a "time machine," allowing scientists to peer into past climate conditions.

Cole's analysis of coral skeletons, which measures ratios of calcium, strontium, and oxygen isotopes, as well as uranium and thorium levels, revealed that El Ninos have intensified in tandem with rising global temperatures caused by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels. The study challenges previous assumptions that direct water temperature measurements over the past 75 years were insufficient to detect a trend, as scientists previously relied on historical weather changes to infer past El Ninos.

While the findings are generally welcomed by other climate scientists, some experts remain skeptical due to conflicting recent observations. However, the study underscores the potential for increasingly severe El Ninos and La Ninas, which could exacerbate climate-related hazards and extremes in the coming years.