Russia won't use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or attack NATO, Finland's president says

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has stated that Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or attack NATO, according to an interview published by Bild on August 29. Stubb claims that his intelligence and strong deterrent are the only reasons for this assurance. He maintains that no power in the world would dare test the resolve of the NATO alliance.

Stubb also suggests that Russia's losses on the battlefield are too great for Moscow to open a second front against another European country and mobilize enough troops to do so. He dismisses fears of Russia escalating the war as misinformation from Russian sources and emphasizes the need for Europe to prepare for the worst to prevent it.

Russia's limited options for escalation currently include mobilization, which could have domestic political repercussions in Russia. Stubb believes that Russia is likely to mobilize during the fall due to the ongoing battlefield losses, as the country cannot sustain its war effort much longer. The political actions, such as closing borders and restricting freedom of movement, indicate this possibility.

Russian authorities have denied plans for additional mobilization, accusing Ukrainian officials of spreading fabricated stories to destabilize the situation in Russia. Stubb argues that Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine because China would not allow it, citing a recent visit by the Chinese foreign minister who warned against such actions.