Why India and China are betting on the Northern Sea Route & why it matters

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is an Arctic shipping corridor that allows cargo to be transported from Russia's western ports to Asian markets. It is a seasonal route, typically open from July to September, and has gained significance due to disruptions in traditional trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. Countries such as China, India, and Japan are reevaluating their trade route dependencies, with the NSR becoming a focal point for Asia's trade with Russia and Europe.

China has already begun using the NSR and is expected to increase shipments if Iranian oil supplies remain disrupted due to the Middle East conflict. The route cuts travel time to China by approximately two weeks compared to the Suez Canal route. China, with its "Polar Silk Road" ambitions, has been an early commercial beneficiary of the NSR.

India, too, is showing interest in the NSR, with plans to send its first cargo ship through the route in 2027. The government is in discussions with Russia's Arkhangelsk region for port usage, shipbuilding, and potential production locations. The NSR would complement India's trade relationship with Moscow and offer an alternative to the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor.

While the NSR provides geopolitical advantages, such as reduced risk from disruptions in the Bab-el Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal, its economic viability remains a concern. Russian crude exports to India are predominantly via the Black Sea and Baltic routes, which account for around 88% of Russia-India crude volumes in July 2026. Kpler data suggests that the NSR may not be faster or shorter than the Suez Canal route, but it offers reduced risk and compliance costs.