The ‘Asian water tower’ is starting to wobble, computer simulations show
“Asia’s water tower” is heading towards a more unpredictable and unstable future, according to a new study measuring the Tibetan Plateau’s stability. The study, published on August 21 in Nature Communications, examined the entropy of the region to gauge how much chaos or disorder was building up in a complex system. The results were released just days before a catastrophic flash flood struck the…
Recent computer simulations suggest that the Asian "water tower" - the Tibetan Plateau - is becoming more unstable, potentially leading to unpredictable disasters in the future. A study published in Nature Communications found that soil moisture and glacier melting on the plateau are causing increasing chaos. This comes just days after a devastating flash flood hit the Nepal-China border, killing hundreds.
Chen Xiaosong, a physicist at Beijing Normal University and lead author of the study, warned that soil moisture increases and glacier melting will continue to cause geological disasters through the end of the century. Countries in the Himalayas, including India, may face greater risks, though specific impacts are still unclear. The study measured soil moisture from 2000 to 2024 and found that the plateau became wetter while entropy - a measure of chaos - decreased.
However, starting in 2025, entropy is expected to rise while soil moisture declines, leading to a more disordered system. This trend is due to weakened hydrological buffering and greater regional contrasts. The researchers suggest that the plateau's current stabilising buffer may not last under continued warming. The study also highlights that changes in the plateau's soil moisture can impact the South Asian monsoon, downstream river basins, and extreme precipitation across South and East Asia, supporting nearly two billion people.
The system is influenced by El Nino and La Nina, with soil-moisture entropy lagging ENSO entropy by about six months. This lag can result in delayed effects on the plateau's climate. The research indicates a heightened risk of instability in the complex system after 2052, as soil moisture modes decline sharply and regional contrasts intensify.
Written by urgent.news from Reuters Business via SCMP's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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