Communicating uncertainty in research is hard, so we worked on how best to do it – here’s what you can watch out for

Uncertainty is an inevitable part of scientific research, yet effectively communicating it poses significant challenges. In a recent CIFAR workshop, researchers from diverse disciplines, including sociology, genetics, and neuroscience, came together to explore how to better convey uncertainty in their work. Each participant brought an object to symbolize their personal struggle with representing uncertainty clearly, such as a weather monitor, a flip chart, and a gachapon toy, highlighting the universal nature of this issue across fields.

Many researchers tend to avoid discussing uncertainty, instead trying to conceal it or make it seem like a failure. However, the workshop emphasized that uncertainty is a natural and essential aspect of research in every field. Rather than being a sign of lack of knowledge or results, uncertainty represents a realm of possibility and potential discovery. It is where curiosity and learning thrive.

Defining uncertainty broadly, it encompasses what we don't yet know about the subject under study and the extent to which this missing information could alter the outcomes. For weather forecasters, this means predicting a range of possible weather events, knowing that even skilled forecasters may draw different conclusions from the same data. It could also indicate incomplete or evolving information, such as the impact of a wildfire on a specific community.

In some cases, uncertainty arises from the limitations of models or the unpredictable nature of real-world events. Genetic counselors, for example, must communicate uncertainty to families facing potential health risks, translating population-level data into personalized decisions. Even within highly quantitative fields like statistics, uncertainty is recognized as a social construct, with the p-value threshold of 0.05 being a convention rather than a strict mathematical rule.

Despite the prevalence of uncertainty, researchers often struggle to articulate it clearly to the public. This can undermine trust when readers discover the hidden doubts in research later on. The workshop underscored that every discipline grapples with uncertainty and that navigating it is an inherent part of the research process, never truly disappearing. Embracing uncertainty as a generative space rather than a problem to solve can lead to more transparent and trustworthy communication of research findings.