The Russia-Ukraine Air War Has Entered a New, Deadlier Phase

Last week, Russian missiles and drones struck a children's hospital, a school, apartments, and warehouses in Kyiv, killing at least 16 people. Ukraine, lacking Patriot interceptors, did not shoot down any of Russia's ballistic missiles. In response, Ukraine launched a drone strike on Wednesday that caused a massive fire at one of Russia's largest oil refineries near Nizhny Novgorod. Simultaneously, a warehouse belonging to the e-commerce giant Wildberries burned in the central Russian region of Tambov.

Both Russia and Ukraine are employing drones and missiles in their long-range air campaigns, but their strategies differ. Russia initiated a systematic campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure in the fall of 2022, aiming to plunge Ukrainian cities into cold and darkness during the winter. Despite this, Ukrainians have managed to maintain their heating and electricity supply, although the cumulative damage to their energy grid has increased each year.

Ukraine's defense technology sector is rapidly growing, producing millions of drones annually in decentralized and well-hidden facilities. In the absence of Patriot interceptors, Ukraine is exploring alternative methods to disrupt Russia's missile salvos. Ukrainian drones have been targeting air defenses in southern Russia, potentially paving the way for a larger-scale effort to hunt down Russian missile launchers.

Russia is also developing its arsenal of jet-powered drones and low-cost cruise missiles, which could further strain Ukraine's air defenses.