Matching lynx population estimates to management scale: conservation science vs politics in the western Swiss Alps

Accurate population data is crucial for wildlife management, but monitoring programs frequently fail to align with the geographical scale of decision-making. The case study of the Eurasian lynx in the Swiss canton of Valais highlights this discrepancy. The official state monitoring of the lynx is divided into three separate reference areas that were examined at different times.

Researchers examined three winters (2023-2026) of camera trap data collected across the entire canton, which yielded 899 separate lynx sightings. During these winters, the numbers of adult males ranged from 27 to 34 per winter.

The lynx populations tend to cluster in the northwest of the canton, areas that are closely connected to the thriving pre-alpine populations. Using density modeling techniques for the 2025/2026 winter, researchers estimated a total of 37 independent lynx (with a 95% confidence interval of 26 to 52) across the entire cantonal area. This translates to a density of 1.09 individuals per 100 square kilometers (with a 95% confidence interval of 0.77 to 1.56 individuals per 100 square kilometers).

However, these scientifically derived estimates are significantly lower than the figures that have been improperly extrapolated from a cross-cantonal reference area and subsequently disseminated by political authorities. Consequently, future management decisions regarding the lynx in Valais should be based on this scientifically robust, scale-appropriate information rather than politically influenced extrapolations.