Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating the Dan Sullivans in Alaska

Mary Peltola is currently the front-runner in Alaska's 2026 Senate race, with betting markets and recent polls indicating she holds a slim but real lead over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, according to news reports. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan advanced from Alaska's all-party primary, setting up a general-election clash with Democrat Mary Peltola that could hinge on the slimmest of margins due to Alaska's ranked-choice voting system.

Peltola, a former U.S. House representative, built a national profile before losing her seat and is betting the mechanics of the ranked-choice system could work in her favor again. With 88% of ballots counted as of August 26, Peltola leads with 48.2%, followed by incumbent Dan S. Sullivan at 42.6%, and retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. at 2.5%.

The fourth and final general-election slot is a near-tie between Republican Gerald L. Heikes and Democrat David B. Leslie, both around 1.1%. Peltola may prefer Heikes, as a three-Republican field could splinter conservative first-choice votes, consolidating them behind Sullivan. A poll by Alaska Survey Research and another by Data for Progress both show Peltola ahead of Sullivan in the decisive ranked-choice round, with Peltola winning 50.8% to 49.2% in the former and 53% to 47% in the latter.

However, third-party candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. has sparked controversy, with accusations of cheating and claims that his candidacy is illegal. Despite the controversy, Peltola and the Alaska Democratic Party have denied any involvement. If Peltola wins by fewer votes than Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. draws away from the Republican column, the race may not be settled at the ballot box, potentially spilling into a legal battle.