Airport runway collisions and near-misses are happening more frequently, 22 years of data show

In recent weeks, there have been four ground-safety occurrences at Sydney Airport, raising questions about their frequency. To examine the broader pattern, data from 2003 to 2025 was analyzed for Australian commercial air transport, focusing on runway incursions and taxiing collisions or near-collisions. Runway incursions showed a clear trend of increasing occurrence rates, with an average of about three additional cases every two years.

However, taxiing collisions and near-collisions increased both in number and rate, suggesting that the rise can be attributed to increased aviation activity. Domestic taxiing incidents accounted for 2.16% of all domestic aviation accidents, with three of the 29 domestic aviation accidents recorded since 2003 being taxiing collisions - more than one in ten.

Runway incursions were generally less serious, with 98% classified as incidents and only 0.10% accounting for commercial air transport runway incursions. While four recent incidents at Sydney Airport have drawn attention, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau will investigate to determine the causes and why safety barriers did not prevent the conflicts.