Will tougher US sanctions disrupt Iran's shadow economy?

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled a new phase of economic sanctions against Iran, targeting five key economic areas: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. Bessent warned that entities facilitating money laundering for Iran will be removed from the US financial system. The strategy aims to disrupt Iran's shadow economy, which relies on networks outside the formal banking system such as exchange houses, gold, cryptocurrency, front companies and unofficial currency markets.

Oil exports have plummeted due to US efforts to disrupt shipments, with China, Iran's main oil customer, seeing a significant drop in imports. The Iranian currency has lost value, causing soaring food prices and making transactions difficult. The restrictions are impacting private companies, leading to layoffs, and hindering their ability to import raw materials and maintain employment.

Businesspeople outside Iran are also facing difficulties, with an Iranian businessman relocating from Iran to Dubai due to the restrictions. While the US measures may intensify inflationary expectations, political commentator Alireza Salavati doubts they will lead to significant strategic shifts, as Iran's sanctions economy has already developed complex networks, making it difficult to close one route without creating new challenges.