A 'super El Niño' could make India's monsoon drier yet more dangerous

India is currently experiencing its summer monsoon, but rainfall this year has been below average while still resulting in severe floods and landslides. The southern state of Kerala has faced devastating floods, despite the overall monsoon rainfall remaining low. This paradoxical situation highlights the potential dangers of a weakened monsoon.

El Niño, a weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, is influencing the Indian monsoon. Typically, El Niño years bring weaker monsoon rainfall, but this year's El Niño could be exceptionally strong. The India Meteorological Department had predicted a below-average monsoon season at the beginning of the season, with rainfall forecasted at 92% of the long-term average.

However, rainfall has fluctuated, with some areas receiving significantly less than normal while others have seen above-average rainfall. Kerala, for instance, experienced 22% less rainfall than usual between June and August, but received more than double its normal rainfall in a single week, leading to severe flooding and landslides that claimed 26 lives.

While El Niño generally reduces monsoon rainfall, it can also intensify extreme daily rainfall, creating a cycle of prolonged dry spells and heavy floods. This pattern is evident in Kerala, where a below-normal season was interrupted by an unusually wet week. Despite the likelihood of drought, flooding, and other impacts, the extent of these effects is not predetermined by El Niño alone.

Other factors, such as Indian Ocean temperatures, wind patterns, and Himalayan snow cover, also play a role in shaping monsoon outcomes. As El Niño continues to strengthen, India remains closely monitored for its potential impact on the monsoon season.