Why Rohingya refugees still can't return to Myanmar

Myanmar's military-backed government is again discussing the possibility of repatriating Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh. As of now, approximately 308,000 out of the 820,000 verified Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh are considered former residents of Rakhine State, but their return is contingent upon improved security conditions.

However, experts argue that large-scale, safe repatriation is now more improbable than ever since 2017. Myanmar is currently in the midst of a civil war, with the military no longer controlling most of Rakhine. The Rohingya, who are denied citizenship, were forced to flee to Bangladesh after a military crackdown in 2017. UN investigators have documented evidence of genocidal intent by Myanmar's military, while the US has labeled the military's actions in 2022 as genocide and crimes against humanity.

The ongoing civil war, which began following a military coup in 2021, makes safe repatriation currently impossible. The Myanmar government, dominated by the same military responsible for the 2017 atrocities, denies the Rohingya citizenship, further complicating their potential return. Additionally, Rakhine State is now controlled by the Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine armed group, and many Rohingya villages have been destroyed or taken over by different communities.

With funding shortages, limited opportunities, and rising insecurity in the Bangladeshi camps, the conditions for Rohingya refugees are deteriorating rapidly. Many are resorting to dangerous sea journeys to other Southeast Asian countries, facing increased gang violence, child marriage, child labor, and school dropout rates. There is a growing concern about the burden Bangladesh bears in hosting this large displaced population, highlighting the urgent need for a genuine international burden-sharing solution.