Hit by Trump tariffs, Quebec loses appetite for quick separation from Canada

When US President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian steel in June of the previous year, Quebec, a mostly French-speaking province, experienced a significant drop in orders for bolts and fasteners. The Heico Companies, a steel factory in Quebec, saw a third of its orders disappear within a week and was forced to freeze hiring, close a plant, and lay off several dozen employees, according to an operations director named David Jeannotte.

Jeannotte's brother was among those affected. The cuts were part of a broader 140 layoffs at the company, predominantly in Quebec.

This incident is indicative of the broader anxiety felt across Quebec due to the repercussions of Trump's trade war. The province, set to hold a provincial election by October 5, saw a decline in support for separatism compared to previous economic downturns, which had previously spurred separatist sentiments. Currently, support for an independent Quebec stands at around 30%, the lowest in decades.

Jeannotte expressed his belief that as long as Trump continues to hold the presidency, the idea of separation from Canada is no longer a pressing concern. This sentiment is echoed by others in the region, who argue that the threat Trump poses to Canada makes it crucial for Quebec to remain within the country for now, at least temporarily.

Trump's threats to make Canada the 51st state and his tariff policy have sparked a surge in Canadian patriotism in Quebec, a traditionally separatist province with a long history of advocating for independence to safeguard its unique French culture and language.

The separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) currently leads in provincial election polls, and a win would mark its return to power after a dozen years. However, analysts suggest that a vote for the PQ would primarily be a response to disappointment with the ruling party rather than a genuine endorsement of the party's independence platform.

If the PQ wins, it has committed to holding a third independence referendum, but PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has vowed not to do so while Trump is president, acknowledging falling support for the independence cause.

Plamondon emphasized that the political fate of Quebec should not be influenced by the turmoil of American politics or the unpredictable actions of an unpredictable president. He stressed that making the decision about Quebec's political future must not be hijacked by external factors or a campaign of fear.

In contrast to Quebec, support for independence remains strong in other regions affected by Trump's policies, such as Scotland and Catalonia. Both have faced disruptions in their independence movements due to uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff threats and criticism of international alliances like NATO. Postponing a referendum in Quebec would be a relief for Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently won a national election by upending polls favoring the Conservatives, who promised to be tough negotiators with Trump.

Carney now faces a separate independence movement in oil-rich Alberta, which has its own referendum scheduled for mid-October. While Alberta's separatist movement aligns with Trump's conservative policies, Quebecers have largely supported Canada's resistance against the US president's tariffs and annexation threats. Despite Quebec's historical inclination towards separatism, Trump's dislike among Quebecers is more pronounced than in any other part of Canada.

According to August data from the Angus Reid pollster, only 10% of Quebecers hold a favorable view of Trump, and even a deal to lower tariffs is unlikely to change this perception. Quebec's conservative policies and Trump's comments on Quebec's French language requirements are both widely unpopular, and the financial impact of his policies is particularly severe in the province, where industries like steel and aluminum are heavily affected.

A March report from the Bank of Montreal estimated that Quebec's economy would grow by approximately 1.0% this year, compared to more than 2.0% growth for Alberta and Saskatchewan. Despite the challenges, some Quebec separatists argue that independence remains essential, even in the face of Trump's policies. Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, highlighted the potential loss of funding for Quebec's French-language productions due to Ottawa's decision to eliminate a tax that financed Canadian programming.

She argued that Ottawa is not capable of adequately defending Quebec's interests, making independence a necessary step to secure the province's unique French culture and language.