Hit by Trump tariffs, Quebec loses appetite for quick separation from Canada

When US President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian steel in June 2020, a steel factory in Quebec's French-speaking province suffered an immediate 33% loss of orders. The factory owner, Heico Companies, froze hiring, closed a plant, and laid off several dozen workers, a move that mirrored broader economic anxiety in Quebec due to the trade war.

While previous economic downturns in the province had sparked a rise in separatist sentiment, recent polls indicate support for Quebec's independence is at its lowest in decades, around 30%. The threat of Trump's influence and his threats against Canada have led to a surge of patriotism in Quebec and a desire to maintain its French culture within the country.

The separatist Parti Quebecois currently leads in provincial election polls, but analysts argue that a vote for the party would stem more from dissatisfaction with the ruling party than a desire for independence. In a post on X, Parti Quebecois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon vowed that a referendum on independence would not occur while Trump is president, acknowledging falling support for the cause.

Trump's policies and rhetoric have complicated separatist movements in other regions, including Scotland and Catalonia, where the US president's tariffs and criticism of NATO have caused uncertainty. Quebec's economy is among the hardest hit by Trump's tariffs, particularly in industries such as steel and aluminium, leading to a 1% growth estimate for Quebec's economy in 2021, compared to over 2% for other provinces.

Despite the financial impact, some Quebec separatists still believe independence is critical, even with the current uncertainties. Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the separatist Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, highlighted Ottawa's decision to eliminate a tax that finances Canadian programming as an example of why Quebec should become independent.