El Niño set to be ‘strongest in living memory’, says UK Met Office

The UK Met Office has warned that an El Niño event, currently developing in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to be one of the strongest in history. This powerful natural climate phenomenon raises global temperatures and can heighten the risk of extreme weather conditions. When combined with the impacts of human-induced climate change, the Met Office is confident that 2027 is very likely to record the hottest year on record.

Evidence suggests that global weather patterns are already being influenced by this El Niño. In India, monsoon rains have been below average, while the Atlantic Ocean has seen a decrease in hurricane activity. The Met Office head of long-range forecasting, Prof Adam Scaife, emphasizes that this event is unprecedented, stating that he has never encountered an El Niño signal as intense in his forecasts.

El Niño is a naturally occurring weather pattern that occurs roughly every two to seven years and typically lasts for about a year. Trade winds across the Pacific Ocean can weaken or even reverse, allowing warm water to spread eastward. This leads to heat being released from the ocean into the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to rise and altering rainfall patterns.

Scientists declare an El Niño event when sea surface temperatures in a specific Pacific Ocean area reach 0.5C or more above the average. Current measurements show that temperatures are far exceeding this threshold, with some areas showing anomalies of over 2C, and forecasts suggest they could reach 3C later this year.

Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the US research group Berkeley Earth, points out that very high ocean temperatures during this El Niño could provide a substantial reservoir of warm water, potentially making it the strongest event since the 19th century. Some other climate groups even project El Niño temperatures that could exceed 4C above average.

The effects of this unprecedented El Niño are already being felt worldwide. In South Asia, the monsoon rains have been well below normal, while in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, reduced hurricane activity has been observed.