Worst’ ever El Nino to bring heavy rains, drought to Sri Lanka

Experts predict that Sri Lanka will experience severe heavy rains and a prolonged drought in the coming months, due to a once-in-a-century El Nino climate event, according to Environment Minister Dhammika Patabendi. The island nation, home to 22 million people, faces significant risks from the phenomenon, which warms the Pacific Ocean and alters global weather patterns. The government has established a ministerial panel to address the potential impacts of what Patabendi called the country's "worst" El Nino.

Weather forecasts indicate heavy rains from late September through December, followed by a prolonged drought between January and April. This timeframe poses particular challenges for the agricultural sector, which employs around a quarter of the workforce and significantly contributes to the economy. The government has urged rice farmers to begin the main planting season two weeks earlier than usual to capitalize on the anticipated early rains.

The government is also evaluating the potential economic consequences of erratic weather as Sri Lanka recovers from its 2022 financial crisis. At present, water reservoirs, including those powering hydroelectric plants, hold 56% of their capacity, which is a promising figure. However, concerns remain about water availability in the following year should drought conditions worsen as predicted.

Heavy rains between October and December could trigger mudslides in mountainous areas, a vulnerability that was previously exposed by Cyclone Ditwah. The cyclone, which struck in November, claimed nearly 650 lives and caused extensive damage, with the World Bank estimating infrastructure losses at around US$4.1 billion.