Walmart, Target and Amazon Are Spending Billions to Reset the Shopper’s Reference Price

For years, price volatility, promotions, and personalized discounts have enabled shoppers to become adept at finding deals. However, this increased price awareness has simultaneously made it more difficult for consumers to grasp the true cost of items. This phenomenon is further complicated by a more cautious consumer sentiment and a global economic downturn. Consequently, the current retail competition is shifting from focusing on the lowest prices to establishing the price consumers perceive as the norm in the future.

In essence, retail has systematically eroded the concept of a standard price over the past decade. Black Friday expanded to encompass Black November, and Amazon transformed Prime Day into a significant retail event, prompting competitors to follow suit with their events. Loyalty programs introduced exclusive pricing, and retailers piled on digital coupons and personalized promotions.

The strategy proved effective, but it inadvertently created a new challenge: customers learned to wait for deals. Amazon's shift of Prime Day to June this year is a prime example, illustrating how promotional events can manipulate consumer spending patterns rather than generating demand.

The retail approach for the remainder of 2026 is not about slashing prices across the board. Instead, it involves determining which approximately 100 prices determine consumer perceptions of the remaining 100,000. For instance, Walmart isn't merely pursuing lower prices as a merchandising strategy. It is treating them as an investment, particularly in frequently purchased items like milk, eggs, detergent, diapers, and cereal, which serve as informal benchmarks.

Shoppers have a general idea of what these items should cost, thereby forming an opinion about the affordability of thousands of other items whose prices they cannot track.

Walmart has made over 11,000 price rollbacks during the second quarter alone, compared to approximately 7,200 rollbacks at the end of the first quarter. Target, which has reduced prices on more than 10,000 products over the past year, is committed to continuing its price investment strategy. TJX plans to utilize a projected tariff refund to offset merchandise costs, thus limiting the pressure to pass these costs onto consumers.

Walmart CEO John Furner acknowledged during the company's August 20 earnings call that customers are still experiencing some financial pressure, but they are seeking value, convenience, and speed. Furner further explained, "Your shoppers don't necessarily buy more food because they see lower prices. But over time, what we're trying to do with rollbacks and low prices is build trust with customers."

As conventional discounts become commonplace, off-price retailers may pivot towards discovery, scarcity, and assortment rather than relying on the numerical size of the markdown. The thrill of the hunt becomes the product itself. Meanwhile, Target's private-label expansion is addressing the price issue differently. Food and beverage sales rose by 7% in the previous quarter, and Target intends to add roughly 600 private-label food products, including 400 under the Good & Gather brand.

Private-label merchandise offers an advantage in an era of radical price transparency, as it provides a unique product that cannot be directly compared with national brands.