Russia Could Launch an Offensive in Northern Ukraine in February If It Carries Out a New Wave of Mobilization
In theory, Russia could try to launch an offensive in northern Ukraine this year, but the necessary conditions for such an operation don't currently exist. The capacity for it could emerge through mobilization following the parliamentary elections in Russia in September. This was stated by Deputy Head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) Major General Vadym Skibitskyi in an interview with…
According to Major General Vadym Skibitskyi of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, Russia could potentially launch an offensive in northern Ukraine during February 2024 if it conducts a new wave of mobilization following the Russian parliamentary elections in September. Intelligence agencies can detect early signs of mobilization since concealing such large-scale measures is practically impossible.
Russia's partial mobilization began in late October 2022, with trained units appearing at the front by December and fully combat-ready forces by January 2023. If a new wave of mobilization is announced, Russia might form a powerful strike grouping closer to February 2024, according to Skibitskyi, who noted Putin's preference for symbolic dates.
However, intelligence currently does not indicate Russia's readiness to launch an offensive on Kyiv or Chernihiv regions.
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