Last time they met, Kim Jong-un needed Trump. Have the tables turned?

US President Donald Trump is once again expressing interest in resuming dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, following his recent decision to reduce joint military exercises with South Korea. Kim has reportedly responded positively to Trump's overtures, and media reports suggest Trump is aiming to arrange a meeting with Kim as early as November during his visit to Asia for the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China.

Analysts speculate that Trump may be employing summit diplomacy with North Korea, a strategy he adopted during his first presidency, to offset his inability to achieve meaningful diplomatic progress in his conflict with Iran before the US midterm elections in November. However, the likelihood of a summit occurring remains uncertain due to North Korea's strengthened relationships with Russia and China, which have diminished its need for negotiations with the US.

The ongoing stalemate in the war with Iran is one of the main reasons Trump is revisiting his options with Kim Jong-un. Trump may view a summit with North Korea as a foreign policy victory to display during the midterms, presenting himself as a peacemaker and reducing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. CSIS Korean Chair Victor Cha noted that the reduction in ROK-US military exercises represents Trump's initial effort to engage Kim Jong-un.

There are indications that North Korea may be open to dialogue. According to US officials quoted by the Wall Street Journal, North Korea expressed willingness to meet Trump during his Asia tour in October 2025, although a tight schedule prevented a meeting. Trump confirmed that Kim had responded to his request for a conversation.

Some argue that North Korea's changing geopolitical position has made it more receptive to talks. In 2018 and 2019, the country sought sanctions relief but now enjoys expanded military and economic cooperation with Russia and enhanced ties with China.

According to CSIS senior fellow Andrew Yeo, Kim Jong-un has "nothing to lose by meeting Trump" because he has Russia and China on his side. For Kim, a US-North Korea summit would be about "reputation and status." Kim's motivation for engaging in talks with the US may have evolved from seeking sanctions relief to demanding direct talks while displaying its nuclear capabilities to compel the US to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power.

This could result in security concessions such as limiting joint military exercises, establishing a peace treaty, and declaring an end to hostilities.

However, it is premature to assume that this scenario is certain. Kim Yo-jong, the influential sister of Kim Jong-un, recently stated that North Korea has "no interest" in scaling back US-Korea joint military exercises and claimed she was unaware of any communication between the leaders of North Korea and the US. This suggests that, with China and Russia firmly backing it, North Korea is not eager to negotiate and will only do so if it is confident of a successful outcome.

Nonetheless, China may prove to be an unexpected wildcard. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is set to visit the US in late September, could play a crucial role if he addresses Korean Peninsula issues during his summit with Trump.