Last time they met, Kim Jong-un needed Trump. Have the tables turned?

In recent times, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has shown interest in resuming dialogue with US President Donald Trump, marking a shift from the previous dynamic where Trump was the one seeking engagement with Kim. Following an abrupt reduction in US military exercises with South Korea, Trump claims that Kim responded positively to his overtures.

Media reports suggest that Trump is keen on arranging a meeting with Kim as early as November, during his trip to Asia for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China. Analysts speculate that Trump might be using diplomacy with North Korea as a means to offset his inability to make significant diplomatic progress in his conflict with Iran before the US midterm elections in November.

However, the likelihood of a summit occurring is uncertain due to North Korea's increased ties with Russia and China, which have diminished its need for negotiations with the US. The ongoing stalemate in the war with Iran is a key reason behind Trump's renewed interest in engaging with Kim Jong-un. Without a clear exit strategy for the Iran conflict, a summit diplomacy with North Korea could offer Trump a much-needed foreign policy victory.

CSIS Korean Chair Victor Cha noted that Trump's reduction of the ROK-US military exercises represents the first tangible step in drawing Kim Jong-un closer. Trump might also be attempting to draw attention away from the war in Iran. Reports suggest that North Korea quietly expressed its willingness to meet Trump during his Asia tour in October 2025, but his busy schedule made it impossible to arrange a meeting. Earlier, Trump reported that Kim had responded to his request for a conversation.

Some experts believe North Korea's evolving geopolitical position has made it more receptive to talks. In 2018 and 2019, Pyongyang was eager for sanctions relief, but now it has bolstered military and economic cooperation with Russia and strengthened its relations with China. Senior fellow Andrew Yeo from the Brookings Institution pointed out that Kim has "nothing to lose by meeting Trump, as he has Russia and China in his pocket," emphasizing that a US-North Korea summit would be about reputation and status for Kim.

North Korea's objectives in talks with the US might have also evolved. Instead of offering to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, Kim may now seek direct talks while displaying its nuclear capabilities to compel the US to recognize it as a nuclear power. Subsequently, he may seek security concessions such as reducing US-Korea joint military exercises, establishing a peace treaty, and declaring an end to hostilities.

However, it is premature to assume that this scenario is inevitable. Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un's sister and a powerful figure in North Korea, stated in a recent statement that Pyongyang has "no interest" in scaling back US-Korea joint military exercises and claimed she was "not aware" of communication between the leaders of North Korea and the US.

This reinforces the notion that with China and Russia firmly on its side, North Korea is hesitant to negotiate and will only engage when it is confident that the meetings will yield positive results.

Nonetheless, China may prove to be an unexpected wildcard. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is set to visit the US in late September, could play a crucial role in shaping the course of US-North Korea talks if he addresses issues on the Korean Peninsula during his summit with Trump.