How well do past extinctions predict extinction risk today?
In the last few centuries, mammals and other animals have been going extinct at least 100 times faster than they did before humans arrived on the scene. So who will be next? Which species are most likely to survive, and which will die out?
A new study published in Science Advances reveals that past extinction patterns do not always align with the risk of extinction faced by species today. The research, led by scientists from the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Wageningen University & Research, Michigan State University, and others, analyzed 210 tropical forest mammal species and found that traits historically linked to vulnerability, such as large body size and slow reproduction, may in fact correlate with resilience in protected sites today.
The study combined data from fossil records, species range data spanning the past 130,000 years, and images from automatic cameras. Of the 210 species examined, 199 still exist, while 11 have gone extinct entirely. Among the extinct species were giant pangolins, saber-toothed cats, and mastodons. The analysis of 64 forest sites across Africa, Asia, and the Americas revealed that the traits identified as most at risk in the past do not consistently apply to the present day.
The researchers discovered that while larger body size, small brains, carnivorous diets, and slow reproduction were associated with extinction risk over the past 130,000 years, these traits were linked to resilience in protected sites today. This discrepancy may be due to the fact that larger mammals with long generation lengths tend to thrive in protected areas where human hunting pressure is lower.
The study emphasizes the importance of considering the temporal dimension when identifying at-risk mammals and allocating conservation efforts.
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