Fractured opposition battles Nigeria’s Tinubu as presidential campaigns begin

Nigeria's presidential election, scheduled for January 16, began with incumbent President Bola Tinubu seeking re-election against a fragmented opposition. The country faces a dire economic and security crisis, fueling voter discontent against Tinubu's administration. The election will be held alongside parliamentary and gubernatorial contests on February 6.

Tinubu faces 18 opposition candidates, but analysts anticipate a three-man race, including the two main contenders he defeated in 2023. These are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a persistent presidential candidate, and Peter Obi, a former state governor with a wide appeal, particularly among Nigeria's youth. Historically, Nigeria's ruling parties have had a better chance of winning when multiple strong opposition candidates participate.

Tinubu, elected in 2023, promised to build upon his predecessor's efforts to bring democratic benefits to citizens. However, he faces criticism for failing to meet these expectations, becoming unpopular among the predominantly young population. Economic reforms have adversely affected prices across the board, plunging Nigeria into its worst economic hardship in a generation.

Despite these challenges, the fragmented opposition could potentially bolster Tinubu's chances, as it did in 2023 when he secured victory against multiple prominent opponents but achieved one of the lowest vote percentages ever for an elected president. An opposition coalition formed by Atiku and Obi in 2025 to challenge Tinubu unexpectedly disbanded before it could gain momentum.