Fractured opposition battles Nigeria’s Tinubu as presidential campaigns begin

As Nigeria launched its presidential election campaign in January, incumbent President Bola Tinubu is seeking re-election against a fragmented opposition. The country faces growing economic and security issues that have fueled voter discontent with Tinubu's administration. The presidential ballot will be held on January 16, alongside parliamentary elections on February 6.

Tinubu is facing 18 opposition candidates, though analysts project a three-man contest between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Tinubu himself. Historically, elections in Nigeria tend to favor the ruling party when multiple strong opposition figures are present. Tinubu's unpopularity, particularly among the young demographic, has raised concerns among observers.

Although he won the presidency in 2023 by campaigning on promises of delivering democratic dividends, critics argue that he has fallen short of expectations and his economic measures have failed to alleviate the country's hardships. The opposition coalition that was formed in 2025 to challenge Tinubu dissolved before it could gain traction.

Despite the split opposition, analysts believe the fragmented campaign may still benefit Tinubu, who previously won with one of the lowest vote percentages ever for a re-elected president. A risk consultancy firm in Lagos has stated that the dissatisfaction with the administration's handling of inflation, insecurity, and unemployment has led to widespread voter discontent, but the uneven distribution of the anti-incumbent sentiment gives Tinubu an advantage.