Potensi El Nino Super kini lebih 90%, boleh setanding 1997/98
Intensiti El Nino didapati terus mengukuh, dijangka capai kemuncak pada penghujung 2026, menurut MetMalaysia.
The latest global climate configuration indicates that the 2026-2027 El Nino phenomenon has a high potential to become one of the most extreme events ever recorded, according to MetMalaysia. Meteorology Malaysia's Chief Executive Mohd Hisham Anip stated that there is more than 90% chance of the El Nino reaching the extreme category, or El Nino Super, between October and December.
The development is based on a significant upward trend in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (Roni) since the middle of the year. Additionally, recent weekly sea surface temperature anomalies have exceeded 1.8 degrees Celsius above the climatological average. "This situation shows that the intensity of El Nino continues to strengthen and is expected to peak by the end of 2026," Mohd Hisham said.
The current global climate configuration suggests that the upcoming 2026-2027 El Nino has the potential to be among the most extreme ever recorded, and could match or come close to the impacts of the extremely strong El Nino events in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. The historical records from the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Nino events show that Malaysia experienced a hotter and drier climate than usual, accompanied by significant reductions in rainfall in some areas during the Southeast Asian monsoon transition from February to May.
Based on past episode patterns and the effects of global warming since then, the current increase in temperature is expected to be more pronounced starting from February to May next year. Mohd Hisham believes that the strong El Nino this time will coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase, which could further intensify the lack of rainfall in the region.
As a result, the combination of both phenomena will likely increase the chances of hotter and drier conditions, as well as longer periods without rain, in the southern ASEAN region, including Malaysia. MetMalaysia promises to continuously monitor the development of both phenomena along with weather conditions and forest fire risks in the region.
During a positive IOD phase, the sea surface temperature near eastern Indonesia is relatively cooler compared to the western part of the Indian Ocean. "This condition usually reduces cloud formation and rain around Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia," Mohd Hisham explained.
Written by urgent.news from Free Malaysia Today's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
