Oil prices extend gains, stocks stagger as Mideast peace hopes dim

Oil prices continued to rise and stocks faced challenges on Tuesday, as hopes for a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive, following the expiration of a truce deadline. Despite soft US economic data suggesting the Fed may not hike interest rates soon, traders anticipate inflation will stay elevated due to the ongoing Middle East crisis and high crude prices hovering around $90 a barrel.

This situation has driven long-term Treasury yields to levels not seen since June 2007, just prior to the global financial crisis, amplified by increased US borrowing and large-scale corporate bond issuance for AI investments. The likelihood of an agreement between Washington and Tehran appears slim, as Trump signaled he would not extend the 60-day truce from a June memorandum of understanding, while Iran dismissed it as irrelevant due to the US' early violations.

Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, stated that the two sides were having positive and active conversations, but acknowledged the lack of trust between the nations. Trump indicated he would exercise patience and only finalize a deal when conditions were right, adding that he could even threaten military action against Oman if it interfered in negotiations.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of unprecedented economic isolation against Iran, hinting at further measures next week. Meanwhile, Washington seems content to engage in a long-term strategy, which investors worry may keep prices elevated for an extended period. Both main crude contracts surged on Tuesday, following a more than two percent increase the previous day, with Brent breaching the $91 mark.

Seoul also saw a two percent boost in early trade after reopening, but later trimmed gains, while Sydney, Wellington, and Jakarta continued their upward trend. Conversely, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Taipei, and Manila experienced declines. For weeks, investors had treated Iran's war, oil volatility, and mounting Treasury curve pressures as distinct irritants.

However, with these risks increasingly overlapping, the situation has become less comfortable for them, as noted by global strategist Stephen Innes.