Elderly far more at risk from rising heat than thought: Study
PARIS: The threat that rising temperatures fuelled by climate change pose to the health of older people has been dramatically underestimated, according to a US modelling study published Tuesday.
A US modelling study has revealed that the health risks posed by rising temperatures to older individuals have been significantly underestimated. The research, conducted by a team led by Stanford University, aimed to determine how often human-induced global warming would push temperatures to levels that elderly people cannot tolerate.
Previous studies utilized wet-bulb temperature, which factors in humidity to gauge how much heat the human body can endure. However, this earlier research focused on young, healthy adults and did not account for the heightened risk heat poses to older people due to factors such as reduced sweating, weaker hearts, and pre-existing medical conditions.
The researchers utilized recent wet-bulb experiments involving people over 60 to account for these variables. By considering the world's aging population, they projected how heat would impact three distinct age groups by 2100 under various degrees of global warming. The findings indicate that intolerable heat will affect a larger population for extended periods.
If the world warms by 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, 22% of people over 60 will experience unsafe heat for at least a month annually worldwide. Each additional degree of warming will result in an additional billion people facing roughly a month of intolerable heat and humidity.
The worst-affected regions, particularly south Asia and the Gulf, may experience dangerous heat day and night for three consecutive months annually by 2100 if global temperatures rise by 3C. Countries with high poverty rates and limited access to cooling, such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Niger, face the greatest threat.
The study warns that uncompensable heat could lead to increased internal displacement and transboundary climate migration, creating new policy and humanitarian challenges. To mitigate these grim scenarios, the researchers urge the world to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming and prioritize vulnerable older people in future heat plans.
Most heat-related deaths occur indoors, underscoring the importance of broader access to air-conditioning and cooling facilities. Recent wildfires, prolonged heatwaves, and drought have ravaged Europe during what is anticipated to be the world's fastest-warming continent's hottest summer on record. The next year is expected to be even hotter.
Written by urgent.news from New Straits Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
