Strong El Nino threatens Malaysia with severe dry spells, haze and extreme heat

Malaysia anticipates scorching temperatures, extended dry spells, and heightened haze risks as the El Nino phenomenon intensifies, forecasted to persist into early 2027. The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) predicts an 81% probability of El Nino reaching strong to extremely strong levels from October, with a 97% chance of it lasting into the new year.

Long-term weather projections indicate below-average rainfall in various regions, notably along the west coast, eastern and southern sections of the peninsula, central and western Sarawak, and eastern Sabah. Rainfall shortfalls are anticipated to peak this month, exacerbated by the ongoing southwest monsoon and the strengthening El Nino conditions.

The increased dryness and reduced precipitation heighten the risk of both localized and transboundary haze, particularly if uncontrolled open burning occurs. According to MetMalaysia's drought monitoring report, several areas may record rainfall deficits surpassing 35% over three to six months, such as Negeri Sembilan, Melaka, southern Pahang, Johor, and a significant portion of central and western Sarawak.

Southern Johor and western and southern Sarawak are expected to maintain dry conditions until September, while eastern Sabah could face similar situations from October to December.

MetMalaysia also warns of heightened drought risks in parts of Sabah due to prolonged rainfall deficits. The agency has previously cautioned of potential temperatures up to 40°C early next year, likening the impending situation to the extreme El Nino of 1997-1998, which brought severe haze, water shortages, and airport disruptions to Southeast Asia. That year, Malaysia recorded its highest-ever temperature of 40.1°C in Chuping, Perlis, on April 9, 1998.

Director-General of MetMalaysia, Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip, advises Malaysians to exercise caution against prolonged UV radiation exposure, especially during outdoor activities between 11 AM and 4 PM. He explains that Malaysia's tropical climate ensures consistent sunlight throughout the day, with UV intensity influenced by factors like sun position, ozone levels, cloud cover, rainfall, and atmospheric conditions.

All states could potentially receive a high concentration of UV rays depending on the season. Dr. Hisham emphasizes that the developing El Nino may intensify the effects of the southwest monsoon, typically bringing hotter and drier conditions to Malaysia. The southwest monsoon is projected to persist until next month, while reduced cloud cover and increased rain-free days may occur towards the end of the northeast monsoon, which typically lasts from January to March.

These conditions could become more extreme in line with the forecasted strong El Nino early next year.