Skymet raises drought risk, cuts monsoon forecast to 85% of LPA
Skymet forecasts monsoon rainfall at 85% of average, predicts a 70% chance of drought, citing strong El Niño's impact on Indian agriculture.
Skymet, a private weather forecaster, has lowered its forecast for the southwest monsoon, predicting rainfall to be 85% of the long period average (LPA) - an 85% probability of drought. Initially, Skymet had projected 94% of LPA in April, warning of a worsening trend exacerbated by a strengthening El Nino. The forecast now anticipates a 70% chance of drought and a 16% rainfall shortfall in August.
Skymet attributes the decline to the El Nino's increasing strength and a weak Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which will further reduce rainfall in September. While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had previously forecasted 92% of LPA, it subsequently revised its prediction downward to 90% in June, with a 60% chance of a deficient season.
The country has received 13% less rainfall than the LPA as of August 17, with a persistent monsoon deficit between 11-13% since August. This has adversely impacted kharif crops, particularly urad, tur, soybean, corn, and rice, as well as the upcoming Rabi wheat cycle, due to declining reservoir levels and soil moisture.
Written by urgent.news from Hindustan Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
