How important is Community Shield to a team's season?

The Community Shield, a match between the Premier League champions and the FA Cup winners, is a fixture that takes place prior to the start of each Premier League season. Arsenal and Manchester City are set to face off at Cardiff's Principality Stadium on Sunday.

While winning the Community Shield does not guarantee success in the upcoming Premier League season, some patterns can be observed. Since the Premier League's inception in 1992-93, only eight out of 34 Community Shield winners have gone on to win the league. Manchester City, in 2019, and Manchester United, in 2011, were the most recent examples of this trend.

Interestingly, losing teams have won more league titles the following season. Manchester City managed this feat three times between 2021 and 2023. In 47% of cases (16 out of 34), the upcoming season's Premier League winners did not participate in the Community Shield. Last season, Crystal Palace, despite finishing 15th, claimed the Shield and went on to win the Conference League.

The community shield is scheduled to be held in Wales, a location that has seen the Shield winners top the Premier League in 10 out of the 34 occasions. However, the Shield winners have finished as runners-up in the league on 18 occasions.

The previous season's league winners have won the Community Shield less frequently. Since 2018, the FA Cup winners have claimed the Shield eight times - surpassing the previous 22-year average of five times. Arsenal and Manchester United are examples of teams that qualified as Premier League runners-up and then won the Shield.

Notable goal scorers in recent Community Shield matches include Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr for Crystal Palace, Hugo Ekitike for Liverpool, Cole Palmer for Manchester City, and Kelechi Iheanacho for Manchester City in the 2021 match. The performance of these players in the subsequent seasons varies, with some, like Haaland, having a more productive season than their goal tally in the Shield.