Have Middle East Oil Flows Rebounded to 15 Million Bpd as U.S. Claims?
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright this week said that the oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to 15 million barrels per day (bpd) and even topped the pre-war average of 20 million bpd on Sunday. Vessel-tracking services and commodity analysts are baffled and struggling to reconcile these numbers with their observations of tanker loadings and traffic in the region. Ship-tracking data…
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has claimed that Middle East oil exports have recovered to 15 million barrels per day (bpd), even surpassing the pre-war average of 20 million bpd. However, vessel-tracking services and commodity analysts are struggling to reconcile these figures with their observations, as their data suggests that oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are at most half of the volume cited by Secretary Wright.
The gap between the two sets of figures ranges from 3 million bpd to 5 million bpd, with most vessel-tracking companies estimating around 9 million bpd leaving the region through all export channels this month. The discrepancy has left experts baffled, with some suggesting that ship-tracking data may be underestimating the true export volumes due to covert tanker movements.
Others believe the U.S. administration may be overstating the numbers to influence oil prices ahead of the November midterm elections.
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