Oil rises as US-Iran peace talks stall, Hormuz shipping slows

Oil prices surged on August 17 as fading hopes of a US-Iran peace deal and reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz heightened geopolitical risks for traders. Brent crude futures climbed up to $89.40 per barrel before settling at $89.20, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $0.44 to $82.83 per barrel.

These gains came after attacks on tankers operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and a Saudi Aramco refinery in the Hormuz strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqhchi stated on the weekend that Iran had not yet decided to resume talks with the US, while US President Donald Trump called for Americans to accept slightly higher gasoline prices amid the ongoing conflict.

Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights for Phillip Nova in Singapore, noted that oil prices had mostly recovered from early August lows, driven by fading optimism for a permanent US-Iran resolution and the return of geopolitical risk premiums to the market. However, she suggested that significant upside may only arise if clear evidence of renewed aggression in the Hormuz strait emerges, particularly if there are substantial damages to tankers or oil infrastructure.

Data from Kpler revealed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed on August 15-16 weekend, with five commodity vessels passing through on Saturday and none on Sunday, compared to 31 vessels during the previous weekend. The United Arab Emirates accused Iran of attacking a third ADNOC vessel in the strait on August 14, following two previous incidents involving ADNOC vessels on August 13.