Question mark on Rahman visit as Delhi, Dhaka push to dial down chill

Diplomatic talks are ongoing between New Delhi and Dhaka regarding Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ongoing presence in India, her recent remarks, and their possible negative impact on bilateral relations. The Indian authorities are also concerned about a visit by Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, which had been scheduled for August 21.

The visit has now become a point of contention on the diplomatic agenda. The recent escalation in tensions was triggered by Hasina's statement on August 5, commemorating two years since her government's collapse due to violent protests, during which she had to flee to India. In her first press conference since the protests, Hasina announced her intention to return to Bangladesh, possibly in December, and expressed concern about her safety upon her return, stating that she might be killed.

She faces a death sentence in Bangladesh courts. Hasina had initially withdrawn her plans for a return to Bangladesh after India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar paid tribute to his mother and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia in December. Rahman, upon winning the February elections, was the first Indian leader to congratulate him, setting a positive tone for bilateral relations.

However, tensions flared following India's deportation and pushback of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants following the BJP's victory in the April elections, which was not well-received by Dhaka. Despite attempts to resume talks in early June, the issue was put on hold due to the Monsoon Session of Parliament. In July, the two sides explored dates for a bilateral visit between August 1 and August 10, but these plans also fell through due to the Monsoon Session.

The Indian side had also invited Rahman to attend the BRICS leaders' summit in September as a guest and chair of the BIMSTEC grouping. Initial proposals for Rahman's visit were made for August 21, but Dhaka soon became aware that Hasina would hold a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of South Asia in New Delhi.

Dhaka protested against Hasina's live address, leading to a sharp reaction from the Indian side, which maintained that it had no involvement in organizing the event and did not endorse Hasina's statements. The visit of Indian Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) chief Parag Jain to Bangladesh to meet top intelligence and security officials followed the controversy, with them emphasizing the need for sensitivity towards Dhaka's concerns over Hasina.

Indian officials reportedly conveyed to Delhi that if they want Bangladesh to prevent anti-India activities and statements from Bangladeshi soil, they should reciprocate. Delhi holds the view that Hasina is a political fugitive and an asylum seeker, and does not wish to conflate her with extremists in Bangladesh who may pose a security threat to India.

If she decides to return to Bangladesh on her own, according to Indian officials, there is little they can do except appeal for her due process and justice. The Bangladeshi officials believe that Delhi underestimated their reaction to Hasina's statements, particularly on the second anniversary of the collapse of her government, when the wounds are still fresh.