US could exhaust domestic phosphorus within 40 years, but waste offers reserves
The United States could exhaust its domestic phosphorus supply within 40 years. Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia already depend on imports from China and Morocco to meet their needs. Without phosphorus, crops cannot grow—and without a reliable supply of the mineral, the world's food supply is at risk.
The United States might run out of domestic phosphorus within 40 years, posing a threat to the global food supply. Phosphorus, an essential nutrient for crop growth, is primarily derived from phosphate rock through mining and chemical processing. As the world population grows, the demand for food is projected to increase by up to 60% in the coming decades, potentially exacerbating the scarcity of phosphorus.
In an effort to bolster the resilience of the U.S. phosphorus supply, researchers have identified opportunities to strengthen the country's ability to recover this vital mineral from waste sources. These include phosphorus present in soil, manure, eggshells, livestock bones, crop residue, and sewage sludge. The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, highlights that over 145 teragrams (one teragram equals 1 million metric tons) of phosphorus have been applied as fertilizer since 1866, with 52 teragrams currently remaining in cropland soils and 47 teragrams in pastureland.
While some fertilizers contain recycled phosphorus, the high cost of mining phosphate rock makes recycling economically unattractive. However, Arkansas presents a unique opportunity for the development of a circular economy for phosphorus, with poultry and cattle industries generating recoverable sources of the mineral from waste.
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