Earth's Magnetosphere Might Not Protect Us From Superstorms After All
Science seems like a straightforward endeavour. You come up with a hypothesis, collect data to prove or disprove it, and analyze that data to see if the hypothesis is right. But anyone who actually does science will tell you many times it’s not that straightforward. And one of the most common complexities is in data analysis. A new paper suggests that one such complexity, known as regression to…
A recent study published in Nature claims that Earth's magnetosphere may not be as protective against superstorms as previously thought. The culprit, according to researchers from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, is a statistical phenomenon known as regression to the mean. This effect causes scientists to underestimating the severity of solar storms.
By applying a "regression calibration," the authors found that the previously observed saturation of Earth's magnetic response to solar storms was likely an illusion. An extreme solar storm could now cause significantly more damage than previously estimated.
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