More people, farms, and drought could mean more elephant conflict in Southern Africa

A recent study reveals that increasing human populations, expanding agricultural lands, and drier conditions due to climate change could escalate human-elephant conflict in Southern Africa. The region is home to approximately 300,000 African savanna elephants, with many populations recovering after years of poaching. Rapid urbanization and population growth in the area have led to more instances of elephants raiding crops.

To investigate the factors contributing to this issue, researchers utilized data on crop raiding incidents from 38 community-managed communal conservancies in Namibia between 2004 and 2020. Through statistical analysis and machine learning models, they determined that the growth of human populations, expansion of farms, settlements, and built-up areas leads to higher rates of crop raiding.

Conflicts were also greater during the wet season, from November to April. Additionally, drier conditions within protected areas correlated with increased human-elephant conflict in surrounding conservancies during the wet season, indicating that diminished habitat quality within protected areas may be driving elephants to nearby areas, thus increasing the likelihood of conflict.

The study projects that changes in land use, human populations, and climate change would expand the area at risk of crop raiding in Southern Africa by 2085. Evan Patrick, the study's lead author, stated that local land use and development patterns are the most significant drivers of conflict escalation.