Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is shut down. The Trump administration says 9 million barrels a day are still getting out

The United States and Iran remain at an impasse regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with each side observing how long the other can endure the situation. Despite the ongoing deadlock, signs of substantial oil flows out of the Persian Gulf suggest that President Donald Trump is banking on having additional room for maneuver.

In the past week, the administration has contested the claim that Iran has effectively blocked the crucial chokepoint using missiles and drones. However, traffic data since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire fell apart indicates only a trickle of ships are openly navigating the strait, hinting at a forthcoming supply shock for global energy markets.

Nevertheless, more tankers are traversing "dark," indicating that their transponders have been switched off and are no longer transmitting their location. According to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, the seven-day average for oil exiting the strait is close to 9 million barrels per day, crediting the U.S. military and Gulf allies.

When combined with an additional 5 million to 7 million barrels per day shipped through upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows average around 15 million barrels per day, he noted on X. This figure contrasts with the 20 million barrels that were exported daily before the war broke out. Similarly, a U.S. official disclosed to Axios on Sunday that approximately 8 million barrels quietly leave the Gulf each night via a southern passage in the Strait of Hormuz with assistance from the U.S. military.

Prior to the ceasefire agreement collapsing, the U.S. military guided tankers through an alternative route that hugs the Omani coast, offering some protection. Consequently, enough vessels managed to exit the Gulf, alleviating pressure on global oil markets. However, this development prompted Iran to target vessels attempting to bypass its own corridor, reigniting hostilities and leading to the present deadlock.

While some experts doubt the recent Gulf shipment numbers are as high as the Trump administration claims—though not by much—oil market analyst Rory Johnston estimated that average volumes out of Hormuz peaked at 7 million barrels per day over the past week and acknowledged that it could be higher due to uncertainties surrounding dark transits.

In addition to dark transits, another strategy for circumventing Iran's surveillance is ship-to-ship transfers, a practice Iran and Russia have previously employed to smuggle their oil tankers past Western sanctions. Analysts warn of potential "economic isolation" as tankers exit the Gulf, transfer their oil to another ship off the coast of Oman, and then shuttle back through the strait to repeat the process.

While not all ships evade detection, which explains why Iran still attacks ships despite claiming the strait is completely shut down, the U.S. naval blockade prevents Iran from exporting its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, robbing the regime of a crucial revenue stream. Simultaneously, other Gulf oil producers like Iraq, which heavily relies on the strait, are shipping their barrels out using dark transits and ship-to-ship transfers.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that a significant portion of non-Iranian crude is still exiting the Gulf, unlike Iranian crude, which is not making it out, unlike the Iranian crude that isn't. Global oil markets are still grappling with a supply deficit, compelling consuming countries to resort to tapping reserves that are already low and nearing critical levels soon.

However, the oil leaving the Gulf provides additional flexibility. In fact, crude prices have dropped since spiking last month when the ceasefire ended and fighting resumed again. This oil market reprieve also grants Trump more time to tighten Iran's economy with his naval blockade, which some officials in Tehran have acknowledged is causing an economic collapse.

Moreover, even greater pressure could be on the horizon. "It will be a combination of economic isolation like the world has never seen before, and the continued blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that will keep anything from going in or out of the Iranian ports," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax without providing further details.