Zambia votes in elections expected to favour incumbent Hichilema

Zambia held its general elections on Thursday, which many expected to secure a second term for incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema. However, concerns over the rising cost of living could potentially weaken his support. Hichilema, who has been in power since 2021, is running on his economic record after leading the country through a debt restructuring and economic recovery following a sovereign default in 2020.

His main rival is Brian Mundubile, a seasoned parliamentarian running on an opposition alliance supported by backers of Hichilema's predecessor, late President Edgar Lungu.

The elections included presidential, parliamentary, and local government races, with each race requiring a candidate to secure over 50% of votes in the first round or face a runoff between the top two contenders. Analyst Euston Chiputa suggested that despite the opposition's divisions, the ruling party would likely prevail. Many investors anticipate Hichilema's victory, but the real question is whether he can convert the post-default economic improvement into sustained job creation.

While economic indicators have shown progress and inflation has dropped to its lowest point in recent years, many Zambians feel the benefits have yet to reach their daily lives. The election campaign has not been without controversy, with some allegations of political repression circulating. However, the government denies these claims.

The country, with a population of 22 million, is classified as "partly free" by the US's Freedom House, which notes that while elections are held regularly, opposition parties face significant obstacles to fair competition. Lee Habasonda, a political science lecturer at the University of Zambia, believes the opposition still has a fighting chance if they had united behind a single candidate earlier.

Polling took place from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., with results expected on Monday. If the presidential vote necessitates a runoff, it must occur within 37 days of the initial election.