Chinese carmakers could capture 15% to 30% of European market by 2035: Citi analysts
Chinese carmakers could capture between 15 and 30 per cent of the European automotive market by 2035, up from roughly 10 per cent this year, analysts at Citi said, with the outcome resting on how far Brussels goes in tightening tariffs and made-in-EU rules. Current European Union rules would allow Chinese carmakers to reach 30 per cent by 2035 – Citi’s base scenario – while extending existing…
Chinese car manufacturers could potentially seize between 15 and 30 percent of Europe's automotive market by 2035, according to analysts at Citi. This projection, which is a significant increase from the current 10 percent share, depends heavily on the EU's approach to tariffs and rules regarding vehicles made within the European Union.
Under Citi's base scenario, Chinese manufacturers could reach a 30 percent market share by 2035, while extending tariffs on electric vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, would limit their share to 25 percent.
The most impactful constraint would come from the "made in Europe" provision in the EU's Industrial Accelerator Act. This rule would limit Chinese market penetration to 5 percent within two years and maintain it at 15 percent by 2035. A more stringent "made in EU" framework would necessitate Chinese manufacturers to assemble locally and utilize local supply chains, which would significantly diminish their future market share gains due to the EU's cost advantage over China.
European automakers, including Volkswagen Group and Stellantis, could face volume losses of over 500,000 and 300,000 cars respectively by 2035, while Renault could lose more than 200,000 cars. Premium brands like BMW and Mercedes are expected to lose around 100,000 and 50,000 cars respectively. Porsche is the exception, with a projected growth of about 3,000 cars.
The analysts noted that the premium and luxury segment, with an average price above €60,000, is better protected from Chinese competition due to buyer preferences for residual value, after-sales service, and brand loyalty. However, Chinese manufacturers' recent gains have primarily been in the mid-size electric and plug-in hybrid SUV segment, rather than in traditional petrol or hatchback models, or luxury sedans.
Written by urgent.news from South China Morning Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — it may contain errors, so check the original before relying on it.
