Zambia's 2026 election: Key issues to watch

The 2026 general election in Zambia will focus on economic recovery, governance reforms, and a major shift in the parliamentary map. Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema, representing the United Party for National Development (UPND), will run for re-election against 14 other candidates. The opposition leader, Brian Mundubile, surged in popularity after aligning with various parties.

The Electoral Commission announced in April that 70 new constituencies will be added, increasing the total parliamentary seats from 156 to 226, thus creating smaller, more localized voting districts. Up to 8.7 million voters, mostly women, are expected to participate in the elections.

Economic concerns dominate voters' priorities, as over 70% of the population lives on less than $3 a day. Many households earn between $60 and $100 (€52 and €87) monthly, while grocery prices continue to rise. Maize meal is particularly expensive, as reported by security guard Lucky Mutelo, and market shopper Rebecca echoes this sentiment, stating that the cost of living remains high.

The government has made progress on these issues, securing a landmark debt restructuring agreement and lowering inflation to 6.5% in June. They also implemented free education and expanded the Constituency Development Fund, which allocates public funds directly to each constituency for local development projects.

However, a severe drought has crippled agriculture and caused hydro-power load shedding, straining household finances. To win the presidency, a candidate must receive 50% plus one of the total votes cast. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the two highest-scoring candidates will face off in a second round, ensuring a clear mandate for the president. Given that there are 14 candidates, even minor shifts in support across the 10 provinces could determine whether the election proceeds to a second round.

Analysts predict that the election's outcome will hinge on urban centers like Lusaka and the Copperbelt, where cost-of-living pressures are most significant. Rural provinces, traditionally following established party loyalties, will also play a role. Historically, rural voters in the Southern, Western, and North-Western provinces support the UPND, while the opposition targets the Northern, Luapula, and Eastern provinces.

Political analyst reports indicate that the high youth turnout that propelled Hichilema to a landslide victory in 2021 is expected to be decisive again, especially in densely populated urban districts. Nearly half of registered voters are between 18 and 35, making young people a crucial voting bloc.