Zambia's 2026 election: Key issues to watch

Zambia's upcoming general election on Thursday will center on economic recovery, governance reforms, and a proposal to alter the country's parliamentary structure. Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema, representing the United Party for National Development (UPND), is vying for re-election against 14 other candidates. His main rival is Brian Mundubile, a former supporter of the late President Edgar Lungu, who has gained traction among a divided opposition following party endorsements.

In April, the Electoral Commission announced plans to introduce 70 new constituencies, increasing the total number of parliamentary seats from 156 to 226. This change aims to create smaller, more localized voting districts, with an estimated 8.7 million voters participating, a majority of whom are women.

Economic concerns dominate voter priorities. According to official data, over 70% of the population earns less than $3 a day, with many households earning between $60 and $100 (€52 and €87) per month. Rising grocery prices, with maize meal being particularly expensive, have fueled protests demanding higher salaries. Lucky Mutelo, a security guard, expressed frustration over the high cost of living, stating that everything is becoming too expensive. Market shopper Rebecca echoed similar sentiments regarding the affordability of essentials.

Despite economic challenges, Hichilema's government has achieved notable successes. He secured a landmark debt restructuring deal, reinstating an International Monetary Fund program, which has supported economic growth. Inflation has also decreased to 6.5% in June, and the administration has implemented free education and expanded the Constituency Development Fund to allocate public funds directly to community-driven local development projects and infrastructure.

To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 50% plus one of the total votes cast. In the event of no candidate reaching this threshold, the two leading contenders will face off in a second round. With 14 candidates in the race, a small shift in support across the 10 provinces could influence whether the election proceeds to a runoff.

Analysts predict that the outcome will hinge on urban centers like Lusaka and the Copperbelt, where cost-of-living pressures are most pressing, while rural provinces typically adhere to established party affiliations.

Historically, rural voters in the Southern, Western, and North-Western provinces support the UPND, while the opposition focuses on Northern, Luapula, and Eastern provinces. The high youth turnout that propelled President Hichilema to victory in 2021 is anticipated to play a crucial role again, particularly in densely populated urban districts.

Nearly half of registered voters fall within the 18-35 age bracket, making young people a critical voting bloc, as noted by Institute for Security Studies researcher Zenge Simakoloyi.

Gender representation is another significant issue. This election features one female presidential candidate and four female running mates. Mwaka Nyirenda is among a few women contesting for a parliamentary seat. Nyirenda highlighted that politics remains a male-dominated arena, where women often face skepticism, undervaluation, and intimidation.

Despite women comprising roughly 51% of Zambia's population, they hold only about 15% of parliamentary seats and fewer than 20% of political leadership positions. Leah Diana Mitaba, publicity secretary of the Non-Governmental Coordinating Council, emphasized that these statistics reveal Zambia is far from achieving the 50:50 gender representation enshrined in the Constitution, the SADC Protocol on Gender and Development, the African Union Agenda 2063, and the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Civil-society group Girls Gone Political, led by Dorothy Mtanga, advocates for enhanced civic education to encourage greater female participation in politics.