US intelligence: Iran shifts focus from nuclear program to Hormuz control

A US military intelligence assessment reveals Iran's shifting focus from its nuclear program to asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to NBC News. The strategic priority shift is reported to be due to Tehran viewing the strait as a more potent and effective leverage point, especially after previous strikes on its nuclear facilities.

Military officials informed President Trump that any US operation to control the strait would be lengthy, costly, and bloody, with no assurance of success. The plans estimate substantial American casualties, which influenced Trump's discussions with his advisors on next steps towards Iran. Three European and two Gulf Arab officials concur with this assessment, warning that forcibly opening the strait would be highly risky, potentially exposing US warships to attacks and leading to increased oil prices without guaranteeing a clear victory.

The US administration maintains full control over the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that nothing passes through without their permission and that a deal or complete surrender is the only outcome. Shipping traffic through the strait has plummeted, with only 17 vessels passing through over the weekend, compared to approximately 100 ships daily previously, which carried about 20% of global oil and gas supplies.

Iran insists on its demands to reopen the strait, including a permanent cessation of the war, withdrawal of US forces, lifting the naval blockade, lifting of frozen Iranian assets, and compensation for war damages. President Trump has rejected these demands, insisting Iran must compensate for damages caused to US forces and assets.