The Domino Fear: Why a 2% Party Threatened Putin’s Endless War in Ukraine

Russia's Yabloko party, despite having a mere 2% level of support, held the potential to bring together Russians with diverse reasons for desiring an end to the war in Ukraine. For more than four years, Putin's state had actively suppressed opposition to the invasion, jailing anti-war politicians, excluding them from elections, and prosecuting public opponents.

Independent media had been dismantled or forced into exile, making open dissent a punishable offense. Yabloko's blueprint for ending the war, advocated by founder Grigory Yavlinsky, involved an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, freezing the current front line and leaving roughly one-fifth of sovereign Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation.

While not representing Ukraine's interests or holding widespread support among the anti-Putin opposition, Yabloko had the potential to unite a broader constituency, including soldiers' relatives, draft-age men, citizens weary of casualties, and those angered by economic deterioration, as well as individuals who no longer saw a reason for the war to continue.

The Kremlin, apparently taking a lesson from Belarus's 2020 uprising, disallowed Yabloko's participation in the election, dismissing it as harmless. However, this decision backfired, as supporters gathered outside the Supreme Court, displaying their discontent. In Russia today, protesting against the war is not without risk, as the state possesses extensive surveillance and facial-recognition capabilities and has previously targeted political dissent.

The Kremlin's strategy of convincing Russians that the invasion was necessary and that Russia had no alternative aligns with Yabloko's proposal for an alternative vision of Russia's future, which does not require endless war. The forced disappearance of Yabloko highlights the Kremlin's own vision of elections – while they allow ballot boxes, party logos, and official results, the outcome has already been predetermined.