북한 고속철·가스관 병행 건설, 지렛대로 활용해야 [왜냐면]

On May 5th, the Ministry of Unification's official disclosed that the '4 Peace Cooperation Projects' progress during the recent National Council meeting. A significant project in this lineup is the collaboration between the Seoul-Berlin high-speed railway construction and the GWTO development plan. However, both projects face slim chances of realization in the short-term.

The government is negotiating with China and Mongolia on the high-speed railway, but Russia and North Korea remain skeptical. North Korea worries about external inflow of influences through a high-speed railway passing through Pyongyang due to its strained relationship with Russia. Russia's agreement is also crucial, as the North-South collaboration agreement from the Moscow declaration of 2001, along with the bilateral railway cooperation agreement signed a year later, is explicitly mentioned in it.

At that time, both South and North Korea supported the Siberian Trans-Siberian railway and the Korea-Kazakhstan railway connection projects. Russian railway experts completed the restoration of North Korean railway in 2003 and the Hamhung-Rason section in 2014. However, the project halted when the Russian company responsible for it declared bankruptcy.

The GWTO development plan linked with the high-speed railway project dates back to 1991, when the Trans-Difficult Treaty (TRADP) started. This is due to Russia's passive approach, and North Korea's alignment with it. Russia's reluctance was largely due to the post-Soviet turmoil and lack of interest in eastern frontier development.

Now, despite recent Chinese willingness, Russia's reluctance remains. The same skepticism was evident at the recent unofficial China-South Korea-Russia meeting in Beijing. As an alternative, the proposal for parallel construction of North Korea's eastern coastal high-speed railway and gas pipeline has emerged. This model combines China's capital, Russian expertise, and North Korea's labor force, aligning the interests of the three countries.

China can supply surplus natural gas (10%) through the Siberian Gas Pipeline-1, while Russia can realize the long-awaited Tripartite Cooperation Project of railways, gas pipelines, and power networks in North Korea. North Korea can address its chronic energy shortage and revitalize the coastal resort at Donghae. The South Korean government should leverage this parallel project as a pivot for normalizing relations between the North, South, and Russia.

Consequently, the upcoming Russia Blagoveshchensk Eastern Economic Forum in the coming month could provide an opportunity, given that all three countries are expected to attend. It is crucial for the government to actively deploy representative delegations.