Short on US Patriot missiles, Ukraine looks for alternatives

Ukraine is facing a shortage of US Patriot interceptor missiles, which are crucial in defending against Russian ballistic missiles. Despite having a well-functioning defense network against drones, Ukraine's armed forces are struggling to counter Iskander-M ballistic missiles fired by Russia. In one Russian attack on August 1, Ukraine could only intercept one out of 27 ballistic missiles.

This shortage became apparent again when Russia fired 24 ballistic missiles and four Zircon hypersonic missiles on August 3, none of which were intercepted. France and Italy's SAMP/T system is considered an alternative, but Ukraine only owns a few and the required Aster-30 interceptor missiles are also scarce. The more advanced SAMP/T NG will only become available gradually.

Patriot deliveries are declining, with Ukraine receiving only about one-third of the anti-aircraft missiles it did in 2025. The war in the Middle East has further exacerbated the global shortage. Russia is ramping up its production of Iskander-M and Kinzhal missiles, potentially producing 60-65 Iskander-M missiles per month. North Korea may have supplied Russia with some 150 ballistic missiles since the end of 2023, and a North Korean missile unit recently deployed to Russia could be equipped with up to 120 additional missiles.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry reported that Russia launched 195 ballistic missiles in July, of which only 29 were intercepted. Ukraine's military intelligence service estimates Russia's current capability to fire up to 100 ballistic missiles per month without depleting its stocks. An alternative gaining importance in Kyiv is domestic production of Patriot missiles.

However, setting up production is estimated to take anywhere from 12 months to five years due to the complexity and specialized components involved. Meanwhile, Ukraine is exploring other options, such as obtaining Patriot missiles from other customers or participating in a European-Ukrainian missile defense project called Freya.

This project aims to develop an interceptor missile costing less than the current systems, with Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point providing the core missile technology.