Russia maps weak spots in Europe’s air defenses with drones, general warns

Russia is conducting systematic drone reconnaissance of European air defenses, according to Germany's top military commander, General Carsten Breuer, who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. Breuer explained that these "hybrid attacks" are taking place daily in NATO countries, particularly along the alliance's eastern edge, with Russia closely observing NATO responses to refine its tactics for potential future conflicts.

Breuer emphasized that Russia is simultaneously reorganizing its economy and military in anticipation of a major confrontation with the West, even as it persists in its war against Ukraine. The German government has significantly escalated its defense budget since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Berlin and other European capitals facing increased pressure from the United States to contribute more and assume larger responsibilities as Washington shifts its focus to Iran and Asia.

Breuer highlighted that Washington considers China its primary strategic priority, while Germany views Russia as its top priority due to geographical considerations. Germany intends to serve as a "strategic link" connecting the Baltic states, Scandinavia, and Eastern European nations with the rest of the continent. Breuer is among the leading contenders for the role of NATO Military Committee Chair in September, a position selected by the NATO defense ministers.

U.S. intelligence sources suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin might attempt to test NATO's collective defense readiness by targeting an alliance member between this fall and 2029, with possible scenarios ranging from cyberattacks to limited invasions of eastern NATO countries. Polish Foreign Intelligence Agency Chief Col. Paweł Szota stated on June 28 that Russia is ready to deploy "little green men" into the Baltic states, arguing that Putin is now constrained by Ukraine's recent victory and may continue fighting there for several more years while conducting hybrid attacks along NATO's eastern borders.

Lithuania's Defense Ministry provided a more cautious assessment on June 29, stating that there is no concrete evidence that Russia is currently preparing a full-scale invasion of the Baltic states. On July 3, The Telegraph cited anonymous U.S. sources who warned Poland that Moscow was planning an armed provocation on Polish soil, potentially originating from Russia's Kaliningrad exclave or Belarus, involving missile, drone strikes, or direct Russian soldier incursions into Poland.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski claimed on July 15 that Russia might orchestrate a false flag operation utilizing Ukrainian drones.